Demography is Manifest Destiny?
Found an interesting comparison of Russia with America via Simon World: “Chinese and Mexican Invasions” at The 88’s.
I’ve heard the theory before, that Russia is going to lose Siberia to China. I think it was Alan Sullivan who predicted an invasion of Russia as China expands its power…but in this metaphor, China “invades” via immigration and conquers because of the corresponding fall in native Russian birthrates. This is plausible, actually.
But it connects with an idea I’ve had but forgotten until now. As China increases its cross-national economic influence, more and more Chinese will be traveling to work, study, and educate abroad. China’s leaders might even eventually see this process as a method of reducing the domestic friction of having 1.3bil citizens on the mainland colliding into each other on a daily basis: “Let’s let off some pressure by promoting temporary business-related and education-related emigration, shall we?” Not only would this promote increased soft power abroad — and, yes, general social connectivity — but it would also extend a potential 4GW and 5GW reach globally. This would not so much be a threat of permanent immigration and “Demographic War” like that suggested by the article on The 88’s, but a way to insert Chinese sensibilities into other cultures — perhaps a kind of Culture War expressed at a person-to-person level.
They certainly have the type of resources they would need to accomplish such an expansion…







Comments
If China adopts this strategy I think they will bumping up India quite a bit. India has no global domination goals, but it does have economic/business goals and would be trying to move into some of the same space.
As far as Siberia, I always predicited that Russia and Japan would get together over Siberia (Russia is resource rich / cash poor; Japan is resource poor / cash rich), but it just doens't seem to that the Russian and Japanese leaders think the same way.
Posted by: purpleslog | May 25, 2006 9:19 PM
(also posted at the original blog)
A couple problems:
1. China is larger than Russia. America is larger than Mexico.
2 The Hispanic non-assimilation charge is false. Hispanics become English as first language speakers within three generations, same as other immigrants. They go up the home ownership ladder same as others.
3. What fraction of American hispanics want the South west returned to Mexico? My guess would be between 1%-5%, probably in line with the percent of Americans who wish a reversion to Great Britain.
Posted by: Dan tdaxp | May 26, 2006 11:46 PM
Thanks for the link, Curtis.
Re Purple's comment: Russia doesn't get along with China or Japan because most Russians are racists.
Racial and cultural tensions are also strong in Southeast Asia, where a kind of Chinese diaspora has occurred for centuries. Local Chinese minorities have often become dominant in business and finance, exciting resentment. Race riots have been common in Malaysia and other places. Most Americans are unaware that racism comes in other colors besides black and white.
Posted by: Alan Sullivan | May 27, 2006 4:58 AM
Dan,
My point with this was to consider the Russia-China dynamics in Siberia plus China in general. I did find the analogy between America and Russia interesting, if obviously flawed.
Incidentally, since "metaphor" is an idea both you and I like quite a bit (so it seems) I've been thinking this: If we required an exact correlation between two things in our metaphors, metaphors would never exist!
Also, I'm thinking that "metaphorizing" might be an example of one type of consilient thinking.
Posted by: Curtis Gale Weeks
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May 27, 2006 8:48 AM
Purpleslog,
For some reason, I think of India's culture as being quite chaotic and China's as being less so. This might only be an illusion; but India certainly seems to have some democracy-inspired noise which might limit the type of expansion, or its effect, I've suggested in the above post.
Alan,
I think it was bilious young fogey who, not long back, accused the Chinese of being extremely racist in a post looking at China's future internal and external problems. And some others, the Japanese. And of course, on the issue of immigration, similar charges have been made against some Americans!
Posted by: Curtis Gale Weeks
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May 27, 2006 8:54 AM