via Asia Times:

NEW DELHI - India for a long time has taken for granted its primacy in the Indian sub-continent comprising Pakistan, Maldives, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The notion was rudely shaken at the 13th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit that concluded this week in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Playing the spoiler in the region (for India, that is) is China, which is very keen to nose its way into the affairs of the sub-continent, with other nations willing to play ball in order to counter New Delhi’s perceived overbearing presence.

India welcomed the inclusion of Afghanistan to SAARC in order to limit Pakistan’s bilateral influence in Afghanistan; India expected to support the move to include Afghanistan in the cooperative organization at the recent meeting of SAARC; but India was broadsided when Nepal tied Afghanistan’s inclusion with the participation of China in SAARC:

However, matters took a different turn when Nepal’s King Gyanendra, who is increasingly leaning on Beijing for moral and logistical support against the Maoist insurgents and the pro-democracy movements in his country, linked the inclusion of Afghanistan to China’s application to be associated with SAARC. This held up the consensus on Afghanistan for two days before the final announcement of Kabul’s entry. [ibid.]

Nitin Pai argues at The Acorn against greater Indian entanglement with SAARC — an organization which, for 20 years, hasn’t done much but provide India’s weaker neighbors a forum for limiting India’s ability to operate efficiently in the region:

The field of international relations is littered with multilateral organisations that are little more than talk-shops. Mere ineffectivenes is not reason enough to pull out of one. But while India could previously bear with SAARC and indulge governments in the neighbourhood, it now risks allowing those very failed states to undermine its interests. On the other hand, there is a strong case for India to adopt a proactive strategy to bring about peace and stability in the region. SAARC, though, either stands in or gets in the way.

Despite being in force for over two decades, the agenda for SAARC summits has remained the same — how to breathe new life into a pathetically dysfunctional and ineffective multilateral organisation. The Dhaka summit itself, and the events leading up to it, indicate that the time has come for India to pause and reconsider its involvement in the grouping. The fundamental question the Indian foreign policy establishment must ask is whether or not SAARC adds any value to India’s policy towards its neighbours. The answer, which even the Indian foreign secretary conceded, is quite obviously a ‘No’.

India’s stated policy in South Asia involves making neighbours partners in its growth. It has been able to achieve this to some extent with Sri Lanka. But Pakistan, Bangladesh and now Nepal have political priorities that come in the way of trade and economics. Not only is SAARC ineffective in overcoming political hurdles, it has become a vehicle for these countries to promote their political interests vis-a-vis India. There is little that India has gained from its membership of SAARC.

He argues that India has achieved more through its association with ASEAN — The Association of Southeast Asian Nations — and through bilateral relations with nations than through its association with SAARC, and that SAARC remains a potential benefit for India only as far as SAARC can be cajoled into following India’s lead: Rather than be a passive member of SAARC, India’s role should be strongly proactive.

China, of course, must think otherwise. Although Japan, also, was given observer status, Pakistan is pushing for full membership status for its military trading partner, China:

[Pakistan Prime Minister] Aziz later told a Pakistani daily newspaper that Islamabad would push for full SAARC membership for China. “If and when the issue of inducting China as a full member comes up in SAARC, Pakistan would strongly support it because it sees the organization as an inclusive one, which must be strengthened by greater institutionalization.” [Asia Times]

As one commenter at The Acorn points out, SAARC might dissolve if India decided to widthdraw. This would leave none other but China as potential powerful trading partner (and security partner) for the weaker, failing states on the Indian subcontinent. China is unlikely to swerve away from its plans for increased connectivity in the region, either way. India, already an observer in the Sino-Russian sponsored SCO, should welcome China’s observer status in SAARC: India is unlikely to dissuade its subcontinent neighbors from greater connectivity with China, but may, through SAARC, shore up its own connectivity with its neighbors.